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2015 Year in Review
Commercial Aerospace Outlook
Source: Open Sources, Boeing and Airbus Public Filings, Fairmont Consulting Group Analysis, Ascend Flight Global
OEMs have seen record levels of new aircraft orders over the last several years. These orders have been buoyed by an increase in
global demand for air travel, the introduction of more fuel-efficient aircraft, and historically low-interest rates. Through the first eleven
months of 2015, Airbus posted 1,007 net orders outpacing Boeing’s 768 full year net orders. However, Boeing remained king when it
came to aircraft deliveries, delivering a record 762 planes in 2015 while Airbus delivered 556 through November 30. On December 31,
Boeing's backlog of orders stood at 5,795, representing more than seven and a half years of production at the current rate. While Airbus
had an industry record backlog of 6,837, as of November 30. Boeing and Airbus will need to continue to ramp up production to fill this
record level of backlog. Constituents of their supply chains also will need to match the increased demand. This could mean that
members of the supply chain will be on the look out for tuck-in acquisitions to increase production.
As 2016 begins, the commercial airspace industry faces many headwinds. Over the last year, China’s economy displayed signs of
weakness, oil prices have dropped precipitously, and the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2006. Boeing
forecasts that by 2020 half of the world’s airline fleet will be leased. As leasing becomes more common and a greater percentage of overall
aircraft orders, cost of capital will become an increasing concern in the industry. If interest rates rise too much, leasing companies may need
to cancel orders as their business models no longer remain viable. This could have a significant impact on an industry predicated on long-
term backlogs. While investment in next generation aircraft likely will not cease, there remain many hurdles to overcome.
Airbus and Boeing Aircraft Deliveries and Production Plans
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Airbus Deliveries / Production Plans
Boeing Deliveries / Production Plans