4
Third Quarter 2014
Industry Trends
(Aerospace)
The aerospace cycle continued its ascent with the combined backlog
of Boeing and Airbus growing 6% from 10,783 aircraft at the close of
Q2 to 11,459 in Q3. The sustained growth from Asia and the Middle
East vs North America and Europe is defining this cycle. Additionally,
OEMs are staying in front of airline demand for more fuel efficient
aircraft, disrupting the normal purchasing cycle and helping build and
sustain record backlogs. Long-term growth outlook is further bolstered
by an expanding global middle class with a resilient demand for air
travel despite disease outbreaks, terrorism and economic recession.
From 2003 to 2013 global air traffic grew 73% and is forecasted to
grow at 4.7% per annum over the next 20 years. Boeing projects that
the resulting air traffic demand will require a total of 36,770 new
aircraft valued at $5.2 trillion. OEMs project 42% of new deliveries
(15,500 aircraft) will replace older, less efficient aircraft, while the
remaining 21,270 aircraft will fuel fleet growth, stimulating expansion
in emerging markets and driving development of innovative airline
business models based on a more efficient network of specialized
service providers.
09/30/14
A320 Family
A330/A340/A350 A380
5,907
4,748
984
175
Company
as of
Unfilled Orders by Aircraft Model
Totals
09/30/14
737
747
767
777
787
5,552
4,033
42
50
566
861
Major Commercial Aircraft Backlog
Source: Boeing and Airbus Public Filings; Boeing Long-term Forecast; Industry Newswires
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Airbus Delivaries
Boeing Delivaries
Airbus Net Orders
Boeing Net Orders
Major Commercial Aircraft Deliveries and Net Orders
(through 30 Sept. 2014)
1
st
Gulf War
Asian Financial Crisis
9/11 Attacks
SARS
US Subprime Crisis Hits
Recession Low
A320neo, 737 Max Orders Begin
Aircraft in Service 2013 to 2033
740
1,580
2,390
13,580
2,620
790
3,680
5,570
29,500
2,640
Large
Widebody
Medium
Widebody
Small
Widebody
Single aisle
Regional Jets
2033 2013
YTD
New Aircraft Demand
Value
2,490
$100B
25,680
$2,560B
4,520
$1,140B
3,460
$1,160B
620
$240B
TOTAL
36,770
$5,200B
Ai l
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